What makes a market call falsifiable?
A “buy” with no timeframe and no benchmark can never be wrong. That’s exactly why it’s useless. Position Radar structures every call so reality can settle it.
The four parts of a falsifiable call
- Direction — long, short, or neutral.
- Benchmark — usually relative to the S&P 500, so we’re measuring skill, not beta.
- Horizon — a fixed window in trading days (e.g. 1, 5, or 21).
- Criterion — e.g. “≥ +1.5% vs SPX over the next 5 trading days.”
At expiry, the engine compares real closing prices to the criterion and records hit / miss / void — no hindsight, no moving goalposts.
Why a public hit-rate matters
Anyone can cherry-pick winners. A hit-rate that’s logged in public and adjudicated automatically is much harder to fake — and over time it’s the only honest measure of whether the reasoning is any good.
We don’t sell certainty. We sell a track record you can audit.
Want this for the tickers you actually hold? Open the app.
本文为信息聚合与分析展示，非投资建议。This article is information and analysis only — not investment advice.