信号战绩Track record

每条信号到期后，都对照真实价格核对一次。结果都在这里，按时间窗分列 —— 不修饰、不挑选。Every signal is checked against real prices once it expires. The results live here, split by window — unedited, unselected.

5 个交易日5 trading days

36%

28 条已裁决 · 10 中 / 18 未中28 resolved · 10 hit / 18 miss

21 个交易日21 trading days

75%

4 条已裁决 · 3 中 / 1 未中4 resolved · 3 hit / 1 miss

30 个交易日30 trading days

—

累积中Accumulating

合计 32 条已裁决（27 条进行中）。5 天窗最先到期，故最早填充；21 / 30 天窗随后跟上。32 resolved in total (27 still open). The 5-day window expires first, so it fills soonest; 21 / 30-day follow.

把握越高，越准吗？Does higher confidence mean more accurate?

把已裁决信号按发布时的把握度分桶，看每桶的实际命中率。理想是右侧更高。此曲线依赖 21 天窗，成熟得更慢。Resolved signals bucketed by their confidence at issue, against actual accuracy. Ideally it rises to the right. This curve relies on the 21-day window, so it matures more slowly.

0–20

50% · n=4

20–40

25% · n=12

40–60

50% · n=8

60–80

33% · n=6

给你的持仓看信号 →Get signals for your holdings →浏览信号Browse signals 方法与回测Methodology

「命中 / 未中」按到期时相对基准的表现自动裁定 · 过往表现不预示未来 · 信息聚合与分析展示，非投资建议。Hit / miss is settled automatically by performance vs. benchmark at expiry · past performance does not predict future results · information & analysis, not investment advice.